Popula published a piece back in October before the mid-terms: One weird trick for making $$ in the markets after the midterms. The trick is a simple one: In every mid-term since 1950, if you had bought the S&P 500 the day before the elections and waited for 124 trading days, you would have had a positive return.
Surprise! It happened again:
Midterm Election Rallies 1950 - 2018
It would have been a rough ride. It looked at first as if the 64-year streak from 1950 to 2014 was going to come to an end at last. The biggest point of buyer’s remorse would have come on Christmas Eve, by which time you would have been down 14%. Out of all the 18 mid-terms since 1950, it would have been the most painful in terms bitten fingernails – almost as bad as the 12% plunge during the Nixon-Watergate midterms in 1974.
Lo and behold, however: If you had kept the faith and held on to the bitter end, you would have made 7.6%.
Alas, this quote from our October 29th piece:
“I, for one, am much too scared by the high valuation of the market and the imminent apocalypse to take the plunge this time, unless there is a substantial drop in the market between now and November 5th.”
Maybe next time.
Each comment or response costs a tiny ETH fee of 3.0E-5 (about 5¢ in Ethereum cryptocurrency), payable from your Metamask.io wallet (the wallet is free, and takes just a moment to add to your browser). This system helps protect Popula conversations from trolls, fakers, Cambridges Analytica and other malign influences.
If you haven’t got any ETH yet and you’re a Popula subscriber, please write to hey@popula.com with your subscriber email address and MetaMask wallet address, and we’ll send you a little bit to get started! It’s pretty easy and a lot of fun to use, Yay.
If you’d like to learn more about cryptocurrency, Ethereum, and how Popula is using these new technologies to help protect speech rights and the free press, please visit our FAQ page.
We’re having trouble checking your subscriber status. Try refreshing the page.
Welcome! To leave a comment, you’ll need to log in, and also have your MetaMask wallet ready with some ETH cryptocurrency available.
It’s easy! Just visit metamask.io to install an in-browser MetaMask wallet. If you’re a new subscriber, write to hey@popula.com for $2 in free ETH crypto!
Thank you for being a Popula subscriber! As a subscriber, you may leave comments, but you have to be logged in as commenter here first. This is an additional login—the login for your commenting privileges—and you’ll stay logged in after you log in the first time.
We’ve sent an email to your registered address at … with your commenting details. Please follow the directions in the email to open your commenting privileges and then come back here to leave your first comment!
Thanks for registering! Please log in and you can get started commenting.
You need to connect to the Main Ethereum Network before you can leave a comment. Click on your MetaMask icon so the window pops up, then select ‘Main Ethereum Network’ from the network-chooser dropdown at the top.
You’re logged in and ready to leave comments! All you need is a MetaMask wallet and a little ETH cryptocurrency, just like with our microtipping system.
If you know what MetaMask is and have it installed, activate MetaMask and refresh:
Each comment costs 5¢ in Ethereum cryptocurrency to post! Just write your comment and click the green button. Thank you, Popula subscriber, for joining us in the new world of cryptoeconomics! Please don’t forget to set your wallet address in order to receive tips on your comments.
Alas! commenting is not yet available on your mobile device. Each comment costs a little ETH cryptocurrency to post, and for now that requires a regular computer.
So please go to your laptop, install the MetaMask browser plugin, and hold forth!